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Catalyst Decay (Hype Half-Life)

Market Intelligence & Catalysts

Definition

Information decay describes the empirically observed tendency for the market-moving power of a piece of news to diminish over time following its initial disclosure, as the information becomes fully priced in and public attention moves on to newer developments.

In Panel Profits

'Catalyst Decay' (informally, a catalyst's 'hype half-life') is Panel Profits' own name for applying the real information-decay concept to a comic catalyst's fading influence on demand -- the platform's own anti-pattern guidance on Asset Catalyst ('catalyst-driven price appreciation is not permanent') and on Liquidity Spike (volume 'mostly reverted to baseline within a quarter') both describe this same decay pattern without yet naming it; this entry gives that recurring pattern its own tracked term. 'Hype half-life' is the platform's own descriptive nickname for the decay curve, not a formally measured half-life in the physics sense.

Comic-market example

A casting-announcement catalyst's initial demand surge typically decays over subsequent weeks unless reinforced by a follow-on catalyst (a trailer drop, then a premiere) -- each fresh catalyst in the same production's timeline can reset the decay clock rather than simply adding to a single unbroken spike.

Common mistakes

Do not assume every catalyst decays at the same rate -- a rumor-stage catalyst with no confirmation typically decays faster than a confirmed, contractually-attached casting catalyst, since the latter carries a durable underlying fact rather than a still-uncertain one.